Alaskanomics

March jobs up 2.3 percent from March 2022

April 21, 2023
No. 23-7

JUNEAU, Alaska — March’s job count was up 2.3 percent from last March, an increase of 7,000.

All Alaska industries grew over the year except Information, which was flat. Gains were largest in leisure and hospitality (+2,000) and transportation, warehousing and utilities (+1,400), both of which sustained some of the biggest pandemic losses and are now above or approaching pre-pandemic job levels.

Oil and gas employment was up 400 over the year, to 7,400, but remains nearly 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels and less than half what it was at its all-time high of 15,300 in late 2014.

The public sector was up over the year, led by local government, which includes public schools (+300). State and federal government each added 100 jobs.

The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.7 percent in March and the comparable U.S. rate was 3.5 percent. Job openings are high, and Alaska and the nation both had more available jobs than workers. In February, the most recent month available, both had about one unemployed worker for every two job openings.

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February jobs up 2.5 percent from February 2022

March 24, 2023
No. 23-5

JUNEAU, Alaska — February’s job count was up 2.5 percent from February 2022, an increase of 7,700 jobs.

Nearly all industries recorded growth. Gains were largest in transportation, warehousing and utilities (+2,300), leisure and hospitality (+2,100), and professional and business services (+700). Transportation, responsible for most of the growth in that sector, and leisure and hospitality sustained some of the biggest losses during the pandemic, but the transportation, warehousing and utilities sector is now above pre-pandemic job levels and leisure and hospitality and professional and business services are close.

The only over-the-year job loss was in manufacturing (-100), which in Alaska is mainly seafood processing and can vary considerably from year to year. Financial activities and state and federal government employment were flat over the year.

The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.8 percent in February — no change from January’s revised rate — and the comparable U.S. rate was 3.6 percent, up from 3.4 percent in January.

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December jobs up 2.1 percent from December 2021

Jan. 20, 2023
No. 23-2

JUNEAU, Alaska — December’s job count was up 2.1 percent from December 2021, an increase of 6,400 jobs. Nearly all industries recorded growth, but most remained below pre-pandemic levels. Overall, Alaska had 4,900 fewer jobs than in December 2019. 

Over-the-year gains were largest in leisure and hospitality (+1,800), transportation, warehousing and utilities (+1,800, primarily in transportation) and local government (+800, all in public education).

State government (-600) and manufacturing (-300) were the only two industries down over the year. State government recorded small losses in multiple departments. Manufacturing employment in Alaska is primarily in seafood processing and changes considerably on a monthly as well as a yearly basis according to the harvest season, catch, and available workforce. December is the lowest employment month.

The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in December (down from 4.5 percent in November), and the comparable U.S. rate was 3.5 percent, down from 3.6 percent.

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November jobs up 1.7 percent from November 2021

Dec. 16, 2022
No. 22-24

JUNEAU, Alaska — November’s job count was up 1.7 percent from last November, an increase of 5,200 jobs. Nearly all industries recorded growth, but most remained below pre-pandemic levels. Overall, Alaska had 7,600 fewer jobs than in November 2019. 

Alaska’s economy is the most seasonal among states, and November is part of the off season for many seasonal industries, such as seafood processing, tourism and construction. Typically, January has the year’s lowest job numbers.

Leisure and hospitality, an industry that was hit hard by the pandemic, added 2,100 jobs over the year. The industry depends heavily on summer visitors, but November jobs in restaurants, hotels, bars and other leisure and hospitality businesses mostly serve Alaska customers. Leisure and hospitality was still about 1,100 jobs below November 2019.   

The transportation, warehousing and utilities sector was up 1,100 jobs, primarily in transportation as residents traveled in and out of state at historically normal levels. Courier and package delivery services drove some of the increase with the start of holiday shopping. Transportation, warehousing and utilities has fully recovered from pandemic-related losses, to 800 more jobs than in November 2019.

Oil and gas employment was up 500 (to 7,200), but still 2,600 jobs below November 2019. Oil and gas lost 5,400 jobs during the state recession of 2015-2018, recovered 500 jobs in 2019, and then lost 3,200 in 2020 and 2021.

A couple of industries were down from last year: state government (-700), federal government (-100), and the combined category of private education and health care, which includes private social assistance (-600, all from social assistance).  

The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.5 percent in November and the comparable U.S. rate was 3.7 percent, both unchanged from the month before. 

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October jobs up 2.0 percent from October 2021

Nov. 18, 2022
No. 22-22

JUNEAU, Alaska — October’s job count was 2.0 percent above October 2021, a gain of 6,100 jobs. Most industries were up over the year but remained below 2019 levels. Overall, Alaska was down 10,800 jobs from the October before the pandemic began.

Although Alaska had moved past the peak visitor period by October, a small number of cruise ships continued to arrive through the middle of the month. Leisure and hospitality, along with the transportation, warehousing and utilities sector, were the biggest gainers — up 2,900 (9.7 percent) and 2,000 (9.6 percent) respectively over 2021 levels as local demand for eating and drinking and visitor demand for travel and accommodation picked up from last year. Transportation employment rose above pre-pandemic levels, and leisure and hospitality remained 1,700 jobs below.

The oil and gas industry’s recovery continued to lag the rest of the economy. Oil and gas employment was 300 above last year but still 2,700 below October 2019. This October’s industry job count (7,100) was less than half that of October 2014, just before the one-two punch of the recession and then COVID.  

Although most industries were up from year-ago levels, state and federal government and private education and health employment were lower than a year ago. The biggest losses came from state government (-900) and education and health (-400), a category that includes private social services, which registered the bulk of the losses. The federal government was down 100 jobs over the year.

The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.5 percent, up a tenth of a percentage point from September. The comparable U.S. rate was 3.7 percent, up from 3.5 percent the month before.

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September jobs up 3.0 percent from September 2021

Oct. 21, 2022
No. 22-19

JUNEAU, Alaska - September employment was up 3.0 percent compared to September of 2021, an increase of 9,500 jobs. Alaska's economy continues to recover from pandemic losses but remains 13,300 below where we were in September 2019. Nearly all sectors grew over the year, although just a few have returned to pre-pandemic levels.

This summer's job numbers were bolstered by the return of cruise ships, which drove the state's strongest employment growth in related sectors. Transportation, combined with the much smaller sectors of utilities and warehousing, was up 13.6 percent (3,000 jobs) from September 2021. The leisure and hospitality sector was up 13.1 percent over the same period (4,500 jobs).

The oil and gas industry was up 500 jobs over the year, and its 7.7 percent growth is one of the largest over-the-year increases, but the industry remains 2,800 below September 2019 levels. Oil and gas employment has been slower to recover than other industries and September's job count of 7,000 is less than half the industry's 15,000 jobs in late 2014, before the pandemic or the statewide recession of 2015-2018.

Only a handful of sectors had fewer jobs than last September. State government was down 800, wholesale trade down 100 and the combined sector of private education, healthcare and social assistance was down 600 over the year. Most of the losses in that sector were in social assistance.

The state's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.4 percent in September, down two-tenths of a percentage point from August's revised rate. The comparable U.S. rate was 3.5 percent, down from 3.7 the month before.

August jobs up 3.1 percent from August 2021

Sept. 16, 2022
No. 22-13

JUNEAU, Alaska — Alaska’s August job count was up 3.1 percent from August 2021, an increase of 10,200. Over-the-year growth has been consistently in the 2-to-3 percent range so far in 2022, although total employment remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

Nearly all sectors were up over the year. The only two exceptions were state government (-600) and information (-100). Leisure and hospitality recorded the strongest growth with 3,800 more jobs than in August 2021.

Oil and gas employment was up 400 from last August, and at 7,200 total jobs was about 1,000 above the pandemic low point of late 2020. Before COVID, the state had around 10,000 oil and gas jobs.

Sectors that have fully recovered include construction, health care, federal government and local government. Leisure and hospitality and oil and gas are the two major sectors with the most ground still left to regain (-3,800 and -2,900 respectively from August 2019 levels).

The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.5 percent in August. The comparable U.S. rate was 3.7 percent.

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July jobs up 3.0 percent from July 2021

Aug. 19, 2022
No. 22-12

JUNEAU, Alaska — July job numbers were 3.0 percent above July 2021, an increase of 9,900 jobs with a more typical tourism season and the return of large cruise ships. Overall, the state’s job count remained 14,100 below July 2019.

Over-the-year growth was strongest in leisure and hospitality, the sector that captures much of the state’s tourism-related activity. The sector had 3,800 more jobs than last July, but its employment remained 3,700 below July 2019.

Oil and gas had 600 more jobs than last July, for a total of 7,500. Oil and gas employment remained well below pre-COVID highs, though. In July 2019, the state had 10,100 oil and gas jobs. Over-the-year growth was also strong in wholesale trade and transportation.

Three sectors had fewer jobs than last year. State government was down 700, followed by manufacturing (-300) and information (-100).

The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.5 percent in July, down one-tenth of a percentage point from June. The comparable U.S. rate was 3.5 percent.

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AEDC 3-Year Outlook Luncheon

The Anchorage Economic Development Corporation (AEDC) hosted its annual 3-Year Outlook luncheon on Wednesday. The event was in-person and featured updates from Mayor Bronson, UA President Pat Pitney, AEDC President and CEO Bill Popp, and Keynote speaker Roger Brooks.

The tone of this year’s event was more optimistic than pervious luncheons. Popp noted that AEDC is “very optimistic” on the jobs forecast and believes that Anchorage is poised to gain back jobs lost during 2020 and 2021. There are challenges on the horizon but the future is promising for Anchorage.

The 2022 AEDC Three-Year Outlook Report, sponsored by Northrim Bank, offers a look at back at the past few years and a forecast through 2025. Areas include population, labor force, employment, personal income, Anchorage International Airport, Port of Alaska, building permits, new housing units, visitor industry and oil and gas. 

The Anchorage Consumer Optimism Index, Real-Time Jobs Intelligence report, and Anchorage Employment report are on AEDC’s website. The reports provide further insight into the outlook report. A series of videos will be available the second week of August and will highlight more of the forecast for the coming years in Anchorage.  

May jobs up 2.9 percent from May 2021

JUNEAU, Alaska — May employment was 2.9 percent above May 2021, an increase of 8,900 jobs but still 15,300 below the same month in 2019, the year before the pandemic started.

The leisure and hospitality sector had 3,800 more jobs than last May but 4,100 fewer than May 2019. The transportation, warehousing and utilities sector was up 1,400 jobs over the year and down 2,200 from 2019. Oil and gas had 7,200 total jobs — 600 above year-ago levels and 2,500 below 2019.

Local government was up by 800 jobs over the year but down 2,100 from April 2019, mainly in public education. State government employment fell 600 below last year’s level and 1,200 short of 2019. Most public schools and university campuses operated in person this school year after a remote 2020-2021, resulting in higher employment, but total state government employment fell over the year with the phase-out of temporary pandemic-related positions. Federal employment was up 300 over the year and 500 jobs above 2019.

The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 4.7 percent in May, down from 4.8 percent in April. The comparable U.S. rate remained at 3.6 percent.

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