Alaskanomics

Alaska Economic Update- Part 4

By Mark Edwards

Today we wrap up our series on the Alaska Economic Update. Over the past three posts, we have looked at oil prices, jobs, and population. We wrap things up today with the housing marketing and the building environment. For the complete Alaska Economic Update as well as other important studies, visit our ‘Resources’ section.

Home lending activity flat - The Alaska Housing Finance Corporation (AHFC) released its third quarter report on Alaska housing indicators. It tracks new loan activity for single family homes and condominiums in Alaska.  The data is based on a survey representing approximately 95% of mortgage lenders in Alaska and also includes AHFC loans. The survey covered mortgage lending activity in the first nine months of 2014.

It reported 6,889 loans were originated statewide for single family homes and condominiums for a total amount of $1.8 billion. This is nearly identical to the volume in the first 9 months of 2013. Loans were done with an average down payment of 11% for the last five years.  Single family homes accounted for 87% of statewide mortgage lending activity with 52% of those loans occurring in Anchorage. The Mat-Su contributed 18% of the volume, 10% in Fairbanks, 8% in Kenai, 5% Juneau, 2% Kodiak, and 1% in Ketchikan.

10% of total mortgage activity for the quarter was for condominiums and only 3% was multi-family.  91% of condominiums were financed in Anchorage. Juneau accounted for 5%, and the Mat-Su, Kenai and Fairbanks 1%. 

Refinance activity slowed rapidly in 2014, but may rise as interest rates are falling again - 30 year conventional fixed interest rate mortgage loans have been getting less expensive for three decades.  In 1981 they peaked at 16.6% and have undergone a slow and steady decline ever since.  In early 2009 rates dipped under 5% on average for the first time and a surge in refinance activity began. 

According to AHFC statistics, there was less than $200 million in refinance loans completed per quarter in Alaska in 2006 and 2007.  In 2008, the average rose to $400 million.  Then in the first quarter of 2009 the activity spiked to $1.4 billion, followed by $1.2 billion in the second quarter.  During this time, the average 30 year interest rate declined nearly 1.5% in six months. 

The refinance pace slowed somewhat in the last half of 2009, but still finished the year with $3.7 billion in refinanced mortgage loans according to AHFC statistics.  In 2010, the refinance volume declined to $2.4 billion, followed by $2.1 billion in 2011.  2012 saw an unexpected decrease in interest rates again to an all-time historic low of 3.3% by the end of the year.  This led to an increase to $3.1 billion in refinance activity. 

Rates increased throughout 2013 and you can see on the far right of the graph, the result has been a steep drop off in refinance activity.  Rates began declining again last year and finished 2014 at 3.86% on average.  AHFC data is only available through the third quarter of 2014 at this time, so we have not yet seen the year end results.  Rates continued lower in February to 3.71%.  This should be a positive trend for both home sales and refinance activity this year.

Housing statistics still good relative to the U.S. – The recently released survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that Alaska continues to have some of the lowest levels of foreclosures and delinquencies on residential mortgage loans in the United States. Through the third quarter of 2014, Alaska ranked 5^th and 7^th best in the nation out of 50 states in foreclosures and delinquencies of all loan types.

The total inventory of foreclosures in process is 0.9% in Alaska, while the country has a much larger lingering foreclosure inventory at 2.4% due to higher rates during the recession and longer resolution times. These rates are an improvement from four years ago when Alaska’s rate was 1.4% and the U.S. foreclosure rate was 4.6%.

Delinquent loans are more than 30 days past due, but not yet in foreclosure. Alaska is fifth best behind North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana and Hawaii in the overall level of delinquent loans. Alaska’s delinquency rate is 3.6%, while the U.S. average is 6% for all loan types. This is an improvement for Alaska from 4.8% four years ago. The U.S. delinquency rate has also come down more dramatically from 9.4% at this time four years ago.

Subprime lending to traditionally non-qualified borrowers was a large contributing factor to the national mortgage problems. The survey covers 95,176 mortgages in Alaska. 6,110 or 6% were considered subprime, compared to 9% nationally. The rate of delinquencies and foreclosures on subprime loans is significantly higher. However, Alaska is in a far better position and again leads the nation as having the lowest level of foreclosures and is second in delinquencies for this important category. Subprime foreclosures in Alaska are at 2% while the national average is 9.8%. Alaska’s subprime delinquency rate is 9.4% compared to the national average of 19.3%.

Building permits up 430 units in 2014, but still historically low - According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of building permits for new, privately owned housing of 1 to 5 unit buildings remained low for the 8^th straight year.  It had been under 1,000 units since 2007, but in 2013 it grew 9% to 1,081.  Last year saw a dramatic jump up to 1,509.  However, this is still half the level seen 10 years ago.

Growth in single family homes increased from 877 to 1,114 last year.  The number of duplexes permitted fell from 66 to 50.  The number of structures with three or four living units decreased slightly from 49 to 45.

The other major growth area beyond single family homes was in multi-family.  The number of structures with five or more units climbed from 10 in 2013 to 33 in 2014.  In terms of housing units that meant a growth from 87 to 300 last year.  The biggest challenge has been making new construction affordable enough to meet buyer’s income levels.  There is a shortage of low cost housing in Anchorage.  Vacancy factors are very low and the number of existing homes under $350,000 is in short supply.  It appears builders have started to take more risk in this market segment, likely aided to some extent by government subsidy programs.  Anchorage is expected to follow other growing cities by becoming denser, building vertical and redeveloping older properties.

AEDC Economic Forecast Luncheon

Anchorage Economic Development Corporation (AEDC) hosted its annual Economic Forecast Luncheon on February 5^th. The sold-out crowd of 1,600 business professionals heard from Mayor Dan Sullivan about the upcoming Centennial events in Anchorage. Bill Popp, President and CEO at AEDC then gave his 2015 Anchorage Economic Forecast presentation.

A survey of business leaders in Anchorage found that most were still optimistic about parts of Anchorage’s economy, but overall confidence in the economy had dropped and was slightly pessimistic as compared to years past. This year was the first time the confidence had dropped below 50 percent since 2010. The barriers for growth come as no surprise, with 77 percent of respondents saying the state economy is as large barrier for economic growth. Availability of a professional/technical workforce is also a large barrier, as well as the national economy. The changes to health insurance laws and the cost of labor round out the top concerns for local business leaders. In short, businesses feel good about where they are and what they are doing in 2015, but do not have the same optimism for the economy as a whole.

A brief recap of the 2014 jobs situation outlined that counter to predictions, Anchorage saw a net decrease of 400 jobs in the past year. There may be some revisions of the final numbers, but 2014 was definitely not what was predicted for jobs.

The prediction for 2015 is as follows:

• Oil and Gas- decline -100
  • There are still 15,000 statewide oil and gas industry jobs and the small decline does not reflect projects being cancelled, only a shift from 2014 staffing
• Health care- growth +300
  • continues to be a growing field in Anchorage
• Transportation- flat +0
• AEDC feels there could be a small bump in transportation in 2015 because of air cargo, but will wait to see if the climate remains positive for Alaskan transportation
• Professional and business services- flat +0
• Construction- decline -100
• there has been positive growth in Anchorage construction, but capital projects are decreasing, which will have an effect on the overall construction jobs number
• Leisure and hospitality- growth +100
• Retail trade- growth +300
• continues to be strong due to national retailers entering Anchorage as well as local businesses increasing their footprint
• Financial activities- decline -100
• Government- decline -500
• we will continue to see a decline in Federal jobs in Anchorage, but state government will account for a good portion of the decrease predicted
• Other sectors- growth +100
• Overall- flat +0

Everyone in the room was well aware of the issues with the state’s budget but as both Mayor Sullivan and Bill Popp noted, Anchorage’s economy is strong and this drop in oil prices is much different from the crash in 1986. Anchorage will not see a significant drop in jobs and in fact, the private sector should increase by 500 jobs this year.

We all know that much depends on oil prices and future production as well as the 2016 state budget. Alaskans need to understand that there is a lot of work to be done to build the state economy and that difficult decisions will need to be made by Governor Walker and the Legislature. This is a serious issue, but solutions for increasing revenue and curbing spending are out there. The solutions are long-term strategies and require a good, hard look at the state’s budget process for both revenue and spending.

A midyear look at the employment numbers will be provided at AEDC’s summer luncheon. For the full reports and slide show from the forecast luncheon, visit http://aedcweb.com/2015-economic-forecast-luncheon-reports-available/

2015 Construction Industry Spending Forecast

The Construction Industry Progress Fund (CIPF) and the Associated General Contractors (AGC) of Alaska released the annual Alaska Construction Spending Forecast this week. The report is funded by Northrim Bank and written by Scott Goldsmith and Pamela Cravez of the University of Alaska’s Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER).

This year, construction spending is predicted to be about 3 percent lower than 2014. The total is expected to be about $8.5 million for the year. Private spending is expected to be down in all areas, except for mining, while public spending is expected to increase slightly. Even with the drop in oil prices and state budget shortfall, state government construction spending will not likely see a negative impact this year or next. A record high $2.3 billion was appropriated from the general fund in FY2013 and that money is continuing to be spent on projects that will fuel spending this year.

Goldsmith and Cravez note that predicting the spending levels for the oil and gas industry is tricky because plans often change due to many factors. A healthy increase in 2015 was predicted in the last quarter of 2014, but those plans are likely to change due to the continued low oil price. The low price of oil means that the producers have less cash available for investment in new projects. The good news is that the industry tends to make investment decisions on conservative, long run oil prices. The current drop will have less of an impact moving forward.

Alaska’s economy has slowed over the past three years. Job growth has continued, but very slowly and the population growth has stalled. There are now more people leaving Alaska than moving here on an annual basis. Private investment will slow because many are looking to determine how long the economic slowdown will last.

As in many industries, the construction industry will wait out this period of low oil prices and work to find a balance for new projects as well as projects already in the pipeline.

For the full report can be viewed at our ‘Resources’ page.  

October Unemployment and 2014 Jobs Update

The Department of Labor released the October unemployment numbers and the Alaska rate remained at 6.8 percent for the third month in a row. Nationally, the rate continues to drop and head back to pre-recession levels. Between 2003 and 2008, the national rate averaged 1.6 percentage points below Alaska’s rate.

As is typical for this time of year, most areas saw an increased unemployment rate due to the summer tourist- season wrapping up for the year. The North Slope Borough had the lowest rate in October and is expected to stay low with winter construction increasing throughout the Borough. Experts predict that Alaska’s unemployment rate will climb through the end of the year and stay above the national average.

Along with the unemployment rate, the Department of Labor also released the employment numbers for the first half of 2014. The average monthly employment in the first half of 2014 was up 0.6 percent over the first half of 2013. Total wages increased 3.0 percent for the same period, when adjusted for inflation.

The private sector held all of the job growth. Construction had an increase of 979 jobs, mostly due to increased activity on the North Slope. The retail sector also saw a large increase with 881 jobs gained in early 2014. Government jobs continued to decrease with federal employment down by 714 and local government losing 441 jobs.

For full details on employment numbers, please visit: http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/ces/

Alaska’s Construction Spending to be up 18 percent in 2014

The Associated General Contractors (AGC) of Alaska together with supporter, Northrim Bank released the 2014 Alaska Construction Spending Forecast. The report highlights the upcoming year for both private and publicly funded projects in construction throughout Alaska. Construction spending is expected to be $9.2 billion, up 18 percent from 2013.

The oil and gas sector is expected to account for nearly half of the total with $4.3 billion. This is over $1 billion higher than the total for oil and gas last year. Private spending, excluding oil and gas will be about $2 billion, which is slightly higher than the 2013, which was $1.9 billion. Public spending will also increase from 2013. It is expected to be $2.9 billion, up from $2.7 billion last year.

There are four major factors for the robust projection for 2014. The largest reason is due expanded investment plans by the oil and gas industry. Other factors include a larger Department of Defense budget, a reallocation of unspent funds federal highway funds, and strong spending by the state government.

The oil and gas industry is expected to see a 33 percent increase over 2013. It is suspected that this is due to the climate of optimism with the passage of the new oil tax structure for 2014. Not only will new construction be a factor in the coming year, aging infrastructure will be will addressed on both the North Slope and in Cook Inlet.

Mining is expected to see a drop in 2014 due to the fact that the price of gold is dropping. More than half of the expected spending in the mining industry will be on maintenance, continued exploration, and new facilities at the operating mines in Alaska. The six large mines currently in operation are Red Dog, Fort Knox, Pogo, Kensington, and Greens Creek all mineral mines and Usibelli, is the state’s only coal mine. There are also smaller projects that will have construction activity throughout the state.

Utilities are expected to see a jump in 2014 with two new large plants being built for MEA (Matanuska Electric Association) and ML&P (Anchorage’s Municipal Light and Power). There will also be hydroelectric projects and renewable resource projects, like wind and biomass. There will also be an increase in telecommunications in 2014. Spending will be a mix of new firms (Verizon) coming into the market and GCI and Alaska Communications expanding and upgrading current facilities. Utility spending is a combination of private and public spending.

On the public side of the forecast, much of the increase for public spending will be seen by defense spending. There will be a huge increase in military spending for facilities on bases and formerly used defense sites. Fort Wainwright has seven new projects including a new warm-storage hangar, which will cost $36 million. Fort Greeley will also see a large increase in projects, including a $1 billion expansion to the missile defense system, which will last over the next seven years.

Other areas of public spending will see slight decreases that are offset by the increase in defense spending. Overall, there will be a modest 6 percent increase in public spending, in comparison to the 24 percent increase in private spending.

The construction trade is Alaska’s third largest industry, paying the second highest wages. Accounting for 20 percent of Alaska’s total economy, the construction industry reflects the pulse of the economy. These numbers do not include construction workers that are in other industries, such as oil and gas, mining, and utilities. It also doesn’t account for self-employed construction workers. In 2011, it was estimated that there were 9,000 self-employed construction workers in Alaska.

The economy has continued to grow in Alaska. This means more jobs and a growth in the population. This growth has been a catalyst for the residential and commercial construction sector. The oil and gas sector is an obvious driver for this growth, but the other areas discussed above are also helping add to the positive forecast for 2014.

The 2014 Construction Spending Forecast was compiled and written by Scott Goldsmith, Mary Killorin and Linda Leask of the University of Alaska’s Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER). Visit Alaskanomics’ Resource Section for the full report.

Reviews and Forecasts- Part 1

January is a time to reflect on the accomplishments of the past year and look forward to the future. It has been called a season for measuring things. In the past week, the Building Owners and Managers Association (BOMA) and Commonwealth North hosted luncheons with a focus on reviewing 2013 and looking forward to 2014. Both luncheons featured strong panels of speakers who shared their area of expertise with the audience.

At the BOMA luncheon, Brian Meissner, of ECI/Hyer Architecture and Interiors, began by showing that 2013 was a strong year with the values of building permits going well above 2012. Permit values were at their highest level since 2006. He continued by giving an overview of new construction projects in Anchorage for 2014/15. There are a handful of new projects underway that will increase commercial space. He also noted that there was going to be a significant shift to renewal projects in the Anchorage School District. 2014 is expected to be a busy year, but with few surprises in the commercial real estate game.

Next up was Northrim Bank’s, Mark Edwards to discuss commercial finance. He focused on the major paradigm shift that is being felt in the US in technology, banking, and real estate. Due to government interventions, it is hard to predict how the market is truly doing. It does not reflect the true supply and demand for goods and services. Rapid changes in technology are reshaping commerce.  Banking has seen a drastic shift since the 1990s. The number of banks is down sharply, while the dollar amount in deposits has nearly tripled in the same time frame. Finally, real estate is facing challenges moving forward. Rising interest rates and changes in inflation create price concerns for the future.

Brandon Walker, Pacific Tower Properties, gave the forecast for office, retail, and commercial space for the coming year. Anchorage’s office vacancy is very low and has continued to drop in the past four years. Many tenants are choosing to stay put unless they are displaced from their current location. Retail vacancy is well below the national average at just over 4 percent. National retailers still have a healthy appetite for Anchorage and focus their business in three major areas, the 5^th Avenue Mall, Dimond Center and the power centers of Glen Square and Tikahtnu Commons. 2013 was a slow year for new national retailers, but 2014 is expected to pick up with the development of the Outlets of Alaska. The space is 65 percent pre-leased but retailers are waiting to announce their opening until further along in the project. Until then, the rumor mill will continue to turn as to what new stores will be landing in Anchorage. Industrial vacancy is even lower than office space. The challenges for industrial space include tenant fit/obsolescence, land scarcity, and new construction feasibility. Space will always be a challenge in Anchorage for new construction, and vacancy rates will continue to be low until price or construction costs justify new development.

Closing out the BOMA luncheon was Neal Fried, Economist for the State of Alaska. Neal outlined the pattern of Boom, Bust, Recovery and Moderation in relation to the Alaska economy since 1980. The past five years have held steady after 20 years of growth from 1989 to 2008. 2013 was a modest year in employment, seeing a growth of approximately 500 jobs, down from an increase of 3,400 in 2012. Alaska is well above the national average for median household income and places fifth in the nation. If Anchorage were a state, it would sit at the top of the list with a median household income of $86,790, over $6,000 higher than the AK average. Neal predicted that 2014 would be another flat year for employment. He shared with the audience his record on what really happened versus his predictions over the past eight years. Every year, except one, he predicted the correct direction of growth or loss, and the greatest difference was in 2012 when he predicted a 0.6 percent growth when we actually saw a 1.7 percent growth. 

As you can see, there is a lot happening within Anchorage and while 2014 isn’t expected to be a record year, growth and development is heading upwards and there are exciting new projects on the horizon. For the complete presentations from the BOMA luncheon, please visit http://www.bomaanchorage.com/.

A wrap up of the Commonwealth North Assets Review will be seen in Reviews and Forecasts- Part 2.

Getting Alaska Back on the Global Energy Map

The Alaska World Affairs Council and Northrim Bank hosted another luncheon as part of the Oil & Gas Series. Today’s speaker was Trond-Erik Johansen, President of ConocoPhillips Alaska and he addressed Getting Alaska Back on the Global Energy Map. He began his presentation with a brief outline of the ConocoPhillips global stake in the oil and gas industry. ConocoPhillips is the largest, independent Exploration and Production company in the world and has reach in more than 30 countries. They have a very large, global asset base and Johansen affirmed the importance of Alaska in ConocoPhillips’ portfolio. He continued with a few items regarding ConocoPhillips’ assets and business strategy.

Much of the rest of the presentation focused on the ways that ConocoPhillips is increasing production and exploration in Alaska, due to the change in the tax structure with the passage of SB21. Johansen said that the new tax structure allowed for a better investing environment. Alaska faces a number of challenges in the oil and gas industry because it is far from the market, there is an extreme, harsh climate, very stringent environmental regulations, as well as mature fields that are costly to maintain. Johansen acknowledged that opponents to SB21 believe that the new tax structure is a give-away to the oil companies. He noted that even though it is lower than the previous structure, it is still a very high tax. Even though the tax is much more competitive than it was under the ACES structure, it is higher than both North Dakota and Texas by about 10 percent.

Since May 2013, when the new tax structure was signed into law, ConocoPhillips has begun work on an additional rig at Kuparuk, which is already producing approximately 1,300 barrels of oil per day (BOPD) and has created 700 indirect jobs. There are also plans for a new drill at Kuparuk which is estimated to produce 8,000 BOPD and create 200-300 direct jobs. The first oil from this site would be produced in 2015. Finally, ConocoPhillips is planning a new NPR-A development, which is in the permitting process. This project would create 400 jobs during the construction phase alone and has the potential for over 30,000 BOPD, with first oil being produced in 2017. SB21 has made Alaska more competitive within the industry and we are already seeing the benefit of the new tax structure.

ConocoPhillips is also working to progress the Southcentral LNG project with BP, ExxonMobil and TransCanada. This project is slated at $45-55 billion and there are already over 300 people working to develop the project concept. Field work was initiated this summer and the project will continue to be a focal point for many throughout Alaska. There are significant benefits to the project including a long-term gas supply, jobs and State revenue.

Johansen wrapped up his presentation with a summary of how Alaska is poised to jump back onto the global energy map. He stated that Alaska has the opportunity to set the stage for a bright economic future. New projects will reinvigorate the North Slope and provide new opportunities for Alaskans. ConocoPhillips is planning new developments and has already shown success with their additional rig at Kuparuk. Since May 2013, there has been more investment, more jobs and the future is looking up for Alaska.

Job Hoppers in Alaska- A Department of Labor study

The Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development publishes a monthly report called Alaska Economic Trends. This month the main article focused on the concept of “job hoppers”, specifically in Alaska. For the purpose of the study, the state defined a job hopper as someone who has worked for at least three different employers in a 10-year period for less than two years each and has never stayed a single employer for four year or more during that time. Individuals also had to have been an Alaska resident at some point during the time studied.

There has not been regularly published information on the national numbers, but here in Alaska, it is clear that job hopping is more common in younger age groups and the overall number of job hoppers has decreased since 2001. In 2011, over 50% of Alaska workers between 20 and 24 could be considered job hoppers, while that number dropped significantly to 26% for workers from age 35 to 44. It’s not difficult to see that younger workers change jobs more frequently while they are in school or training programs. Younger workers will often take jobs that they do not intend to stay in long, and use them as stepping stones into different, longer term positions. The report notes that each age group had a decrease in job hoppers from 2001 to 2011. This could be because workers are less likely to quit their jobs during or immediately following a recession.

The Department of Labor also looked at job hoppers by industry and found that in Alaska construction had the highest amount of job hoppers across all age groups. This is not surprising because construction is often seasonal and based on a specific project. Alaska’s economy relies heavily on seasonal workers. Construction, tourism and fishing are all strong industries in the state, but are extremely seasonal, which makes a true job hopping comparison difficult. For many seasonal workers, the decision to job hop isn’t voluntary, rather workers must go where there are jobs. Many of the industries that have a high percentage of job hoppers are either seasonal or relatively low paying; sometimes both.

As we move forward and out the recession, it will be interesting to see if workers who are currently in their 20s and early 30s will settle into a career at the same rate as their predecessors, or if they will continue to job hop.

For the complete Department of Labor article and related topics, please visit www.labor.alaska.gov/trends

Make it Monday Forum Re-cap

Yesterday’s Anchorage Chamber of Commerce’s “Make it Monday” forum was titled A Good Home is Hard to Find. Bill Popp, President of Anchorage Economic Development Council, began the panel discussion by discussing the current economic conditions in Anchorage, including Anchorage’s ranking in the annual Cost of Living Index. Out of 307 cities in the national survey, Anchorage ranks 20^th in both cost of living and cost of housing.  

Art Clark, Vice President of Real Estate Brokers of Alaska, continued with the historical trends for home prices and numbers of listings. The average number of homes listed in a year is lower than it was in 1995, and the average list price has doubled during that same time period.

Jerry Weaver, community development director for the Municipality of Anchorage, and Daniel Delfino, with Alaska Housing Finance Corporation, concluded the discussion by noting that Anchorage has a strong rental market, but new construction of unrestricted multi-family rental housing is relatively modest.

The Anchorage Housing Market Analysis shows that there is not enough buildable land to accommodate future housing demand (2010-2030) under historical development patterns, current land-use policies and development options. It also notes that building mid-rise residential and mid-rise mixed-use rental development is not financially feasible in current market conditions. The full report, written by the McDowell Group and ECONorthwest can be found at http://www.muni.org/Departments/OCPD/Planning/Documents/Anchorage%20Housing%20Market%20Analysis%20Summary%20Report.pdf

The panel agreed that Anchorage is facing a significant challenge for affordable housing and that there is no easy answer. Not only is there a problem, but the outlook is getting worse and housing affordability impacts overall economic growth and business opportunities. Luncheon attendees were asked to become more educated about the problem; become involved in potential solutions, work to collaborate with others and join the conversation to bring light to the challenge of affordable housing in Anchorage.

The slides from Monday’s presentation can be found at http://prezi.com/_mfpwboermpx/make-it-monday-a-good-home-is-hard-to-find/

The Pebble Project: Economics and Employment

A recent economic impact study conducted by IHS Global Insight cites the potential for 15,000 Alaska and US jobs during operations of the Pebble Project. This is to include nearly 5,000 jobs in Alaska alone during the construction phase, which is slated to take 5 years. The study, commissioned by the Pebble Limited Partnership, outlines the potential economic benefit for the state of Alaska and includes national economic benefits as well.

To view a Pebble deposit economic infographic, visit http://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-pebble-project-economics-and-employment.

The full version of the IHS Global Insight's report The Economic and Employment Constributions of a Conceptual Pebble Mine to the Alaska and United States Economies can be accessed at http://corporate.pebblepartnership.com/files/documents/study.pdf.