Alaskanomics

AEDC Economic Forecast Presentation

The Anchorage Economic Development Corporation (AEDC) hosted its annual Economic Forecast presentation on Wednesday. As they did with their 3-Year Outlook presentation this summer, the event was virtual with attendees able to listen via Zoom. The video will be available in coming weeks for those who weren’t able to listen live.

The event’s guest speakers were Acting Mayor Quinn-Davidson, Governor Dunleavy, and Senator Murkowski. Each highlighted the struggles felt throughout Anchorage, Alaska and the country in the past year. They all noted that we are not out of the woods yet, but there are reasons to remain positive with hope that we will come through the pandemic and financial crisis together as a community.

AEDC’s President & CEO Bill Popp presented the economic forecast for 2021, while also looking back at 2020 to show the significance of the impact that COVID-19 has had on the Anchorage economy. Part of the forecast included the Annual Business Confidence Index report and the Anchorage Consumer Optimism Index. Both reports showed that confidence has been shaken on all levels and all indicators dropped from the previous reporting period.

The start of 2020 brought a hope for the end of the recession seen in Anchorage and throughout Alaska, but instead brought a global pandemic that halted business and day-to-day life for many. Instead of gaining jobs, as predicted in 2019, Anchorage lost more than 18,000 jobs beginning in March 2020. The losses were felt across industries, but most heavily in Leisure & Hospitality and Retail Trade.

The Economic Forecast report gives hope for some gains in 2021, but it will take years to get back what was lost in the last 10 months of 2020. The numbers continued to be sobering as we look towards 2021, but Popp reminded listeners that things are improving with the distribution of vaccines. 2020 is a year that many are glad to have in the rearview mirror and are hoping that 2021 will help Anchorage get back on track to rebuild the local economy and bring jobs back to the hardest hit industries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

For the full reports and presentation, visit AEDC online.

December jobs down 7.7 percent from December 2019

Jan. 22, 2021
No. 21-06

JUNEAU, Alaska — Alaska’s December employment was down 7.7 percent from December 2019 to 290,400, a loss of 24,100 jobs, as the pandemic continued to keep job counts well below year-ago levels.

Leisure and hospitality continued to record the largest losses, with 8,600 fewer jobs than a year ago (-27.3 percent). The transportation, warehousing and utilities sector had 2,600 fewer jobs (-12.6 percent). Oil and gas employment was down 3,200 (-32.0 percent), and professional and business services lost 2,000 jobs (-7.4 percent).

Anchorage shut down bars and restaurants during December to slow the spread of COVID-19, which represented much of the drop in leisure and hospitality. Oil and gas employment appeared to hit a floor of around 6,800 jobs in November, where it stayed in December, but there’s no sign yet of a bounce. Oil jobs hovered around 10,000 in early 2020 before the pandemic drove them down to current levels.

State government’s job count was up 500 from December 2019, primarily from COVID-related hires such as contract tracers and additional staff to process unemployment insurance claims.

The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 5.8 percent in December from a revised November rate of 6.3 percent (the preliminary November rate was 8.1 percent). The comparable U.S. rate remained at 6.7 percent. As we’ve noted, Alaska’s unemployment rate has been an unreliable and misleading economic indicator during the COVID-affected months. Some key inputs to the unemployment rate come from a household survey the U.S. Census Bureau conducts for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That survey has been difficult to conduct during the pandemic and has produced data that are out of sync with job numbers and unemployment insurance claims.

Job losses remain historically large, and unemployment claims during the second week of December were still nearly five times higher than the same week in 2019.

View data tables and charts (PDF)

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Labor force data home page

Alaska population declined 0.5 percent in 2020

Jan. 7, 2021
No. 21-2

JUNEAU, Alaska — Alaska’s population decreased by 3,831 people — 0.5 percent — from July 2019 to July 2020, based on population estimates released today by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development. This was the fourth straight year of decline for the state’s population, which peaked at 740,637 in July 2016 and was 728,903 as of July 2020.

Net migration — in-migrants minus out-migrants — accounted for a loss of 8,873 people. The migration loss was driven by fewer people moving to Alaska rather than more leaving. Alaska has lost more movers than it’s gained every year since 2013. A decrease in births also contributed to the overall decline.

Alaska’s under-18 and 18-to-64-year-old populations each declined 1 percent, and the 65-and-older group grew 4 percent. The state’s highest median age was 48.6 in the Haines Borough and Hoonah-Angoon Census Area. The Kusilvak Census Area was youngest at 24.3.

Twenty-three of Alaska’s 30 boroughs and census areas lost population between 2019 and 2020. The Municipality of Anchorage lost the most (-3,517). Fairbanks grew the most, gaining 1,064 people, followed the Matanuska-Susitna Borough (523).

Counts from the 2020 Census have not been released and are not part of these estimates.

Complete estimates for the state, boroughs/census areas, cities and census-designated places are available here. Also available are estimates for census tracts, school districts and Alaska Native Regional Corporations and estimates by age and sex for each borough and census area and for places with populations of 1,000 or more.

View data table (Excel)

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