AEDC’s annual 3-Year Outlook Luncheon was held Wednesday and featured a recap of the 2018 employment numbers and a look forward to the next three years. While there was optimism at last year’s outlook luncheon and the January forecast luncheon, this luncheon had a much different tone. Six months ago, AEDC believed that 2019 would be the year that Anchorage and the rest of Alaska came out of the recession. Even with the job gains of the first two quarters, AEDC now believes that we will slip back into recession for the next three years. This is due to the uncertainty and issues with the reductions in the State budget caused by Governor Dunleavy’s vetoes of late June.
The 3-Year Outlook isn’t as rosy as it was last year. There continues to be bright spots in Anchorage’s economy. This includes tourism, airport, oil and gas, and professional and business services. Retail and government continue to be weak spots and health care has started to slip with the changes to Medicaid. Anchorage has seen a talent drain with 20,000 people moving the lower-48 in the past five years.
The Anchorage Consumer Optimism Index for Q2 2019 dropped to 53 after being close to 60 in 2018. Confidence has dropped to the ‘not sure’ category, rather than being optimistic or pessimistic about the future. The numbers for the three factors for the overall confidence level were all over the board. The local economy confidence was at 50.8, personal finance confidence was 62.5, and future expectations was at 49.3. For many, they believe that they are fine, but the rest of Anchorage is not and will struggle in the future.
Speakers tried to remain positive about the future of Anchorage, but you could tell that it was difficult with so many pieces of the economy in flux. Attendees were left with the thought that yes, we have problems, but our future is still in our control. AEDC President & CEO, Bill Popp asked that we all “band together and look for creative solutions to stop the bleeding of the workforce, and stop our children from leaving Alaska.”
For the full reports, visit AEDC online.
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