By Mouhcine Guettabi
A short brief on the regional dimension of the Alaska recession, part 1.
This most recession was driven by the severe decline in oil prices which caused a contraction of both government and private sector spending. Since the start of the recession, the state has lost upwards of 13,000 jobs. The state is comprised of 19 boroughs and 10 census areas which have different economic bases and varying levels of exposure to the oil industry and state government spending. Using employment data between June 2015 and June 2018, we show how each borough/census area has fared in each of the three years since the onset of the recession.
First year of the recession: June 2015 to June 2016
Of the 29 boroughs/census areas in Alaska, 19 experienced negative growth between June 2015 and June 2016. Below we list some of the main takeaways:
– The North Slope borough given its dependence on oil jobs unsurprisingly experienced the most significant employment decline. Its employment decreased by 14.3% between 2015 and 2016.
– Of the 10 boroughs/census areas that experienced positive growth, the most impressive growth occurred at 13.73% in Haines borough. Bristol Bay and Hoonah-Angoon also experienced double digit growth rates.
– Six boroughs experienced job declines that exceeded 5%. Those boroughs are North Slope, Sitka, Aleutians East, Lake and Peninsula, Bethel, and Yakutat.
Second year of the recession: June 2016 to June 2017
Between June 2016 and June 2017, 15 of the 29 boroughs/census areas experienced negative growth. Below we list some of the main takeaways:
– Unlike 2015-2016, the borough with the most negative growth was Yakutat Borough at -12.81%. Six boroughs/census areas experienced employment declines of 5% or larger.
– On the other side of the spectrum, Bristol Bay experienced a 38.16% increase in employment with Lake and Peninsula borough experiencing the second most significant growth at 16.70%. Five boroughs/census areas experienced growth exceeding 5%.
Third year of the recession: June 2017 to June 2018
Between June 2017 and June 2018, similar to the previous year, 15 of the 29 boroughs/census areas experienced negative growth. Below we list some of the main takeaways:
– Aleutians East experienced the most severe decline at 17.8% with Kusilvak losing 11.8% of its jobs.
– Lake and Peninsula and Yukon Boroughs experienced double digit growth rates.
– It is important to note that five of the boroughs/census areas that experienced negative growth in 2016-2017 turned around the following year. Those five boroughs are Yakutat, Valdez, Hoonah, Southeast Fairbanks, and Dillingham.
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