In the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2012, the agency identifies the decline of oil shipped through the Trans-Alaska Pipeline (TAPS) as one of the more significant current and emerging issues impacting energy markets.
They cite Alyeska Pipeline's June 2011 Low Flow Impact Study but note that "the more fundamental issue is declining oil production" and list a number of ways the decline could be alleviated:
- discovery and production of large new sources of oil on the North Slope, including offshore oil in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas and onshore shale and heavy oil
- production of the 10.4 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil resources in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) although as the report notes oil and gas leasing in ANWR is currently prohibited
- conversion of North Slope natural gas to methanol or Fischer-Tropsch petroleum products that could be transported via TAPS
- or, in the absence of new supply, development of alternative crude oil transportation facilities for smaller volumes
Each of these solutions has different costs, risks and lead times, but the EIA notes "...there is also a significant risk that production from existing North Slope fields might decline much faster than anticipated and/or that the cost of operating those fields might escalate much faster than expected."
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