Alaskanomics

Alaska's total state personal income unchanged in 3rd Quarter; U.S. up slightly

Total personal income for Alaska was $32.6 billion in the third quarter of 2011, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis. The U.S. grew 0.1%. Growth rates ranged from -0.4 percent in West Virginia to 0.6 percent in Washington State. Personal income fell or was unchanged in 20 states and grew 0.2 percent in the other thirty states.

In Alaska, decreases in government transfer payments were matched by increases in net earnings, dividends, interest and rent.

The largest percentage increases in wages and salaries were in the following industries:

• Administrative and waste services up 3.2%
• Professional, scientific and technical services up 2.2%
• Health care and social assistance up 1.4%

The largest declines in wages and salaries were in the following industries:

• Information down 2.6%
• Construction down 2.2%
• Mining (including petroleum) down 2.0%

 

 

Forbes: Alaska's energy tax structure is among "Worst in the World"

At the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation annual economic forecast luncheon, keynote speaker Steve Forbes characterized Alaska's energy tax structure as one of the worst in the world - second only to North Korea. Forbes believes that oil prices will not stay above $100 per barrel forever, and suggested that a "sensible" tax structure will attract more capital and result in more long term revenues to Alaska.

Forbes, chairman and editor-in-chief of Forbes Media, also believes the U.S. could be a major energy exporter, saying "The abundance (of energy resources) has barely been scratched." With a changes in Congress that Forbes predicts will take place in the fall elections, he said it was possible that ANWR could be opened to oil exploration and development.

Anchorage Office Market Strong in National Comparisons; Forecast for Somewhat Softer Market in 2012

Anchorage's office space vacancy rate is just over 5%, compared with a national rate of 16%, according to Theodore Jensen, MAI, of Reliant LLC in his January presentation to the Building Owners and Managers Association of Anchorage. Other western city vacancy rates range from about 9% in Portland to 25% in Phoenix.

Jensen forecasts another 200,000 of new Class A office space to be built in 2012, with more projects "in the wings." With low job growth limiting demand, and significant new supply, Jensen expects market conditions to soften in 2012 and result in downward pressure on rents at the high end and flat rents for the rest of the market. However, Jensen noted that Anchorage is still one of the better performing markets in the country. 

Fread Sees 0.6% Job Growth for Anchorage in 2012; Health Care and Hospitality will Lead Gains

In a January presentation to the Building Owners and Managers Association in Anchorage, Alaska Department of Labor's veteran researcher, Neal Fried, revealed his forecast for job growth in Anchorage for 2012.

Preiminary figures for 2011 indicate that Anchorage jobs grew 1.4%, after job losses in 2009 and nearly flat job numbers in 2010. Fried's forecasts "modest" growth for 2012 at 0.6%:

• Government and Construction sectors will lose 400 and 300 jobs, respectively
• Health Care sector will gain 700 jobs
• Leisure and Hospitality will gain 400 jobs
• Transportation will gain 300 jobs
• Retail Trade and Professional Services will each gain 200 jobs