Alaskanomics

Alaska's total state personal income unchanged in 3rd Quarter; U.S. up slightly

Total personal income for Alaska was $32.6 billion in the third quarter of 2011, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis. The U.S. grew 0.1%. Growth rates ranged from -0.4 percent in West Virginia to 0.6 percent in Washington State. Personal income fell or was unchanged in 20 states and grew 0.2 percent in the other thirty states.

In Alaska, decreases in government transfer payments were matched by increases in net earnings, dividends, interest and rent.

The largest percentage increases in wages and salaries were in the following industries:

• Administrative and waste services up 3.2%
• Professional, scientific and technical services up 2.2%
• Health care and social assistance up 1.4%

The largest declines in wages and salaries were in the following industries:

• Information down 2.6%
• Construction down 2.2%
• Mining (including petroleum) down 2.0%

 

 

Fread Sees 0.6% Job Growth for Anchorage in 2012; Health Care and Hospitality will Lead Gains

In a January presentation to the Building Owners and Managers Association in Anchorage, Alaska Department of Labor's veteran researcher, Neal Fried, revealed his forecast for job growth in Anchorage for 2012.

Preiminary figures for 2011 indicate that Anchorage jobs grew 1.4%, after job losses in 2009 and nearly flat job numbers in 2010. Fried's forecasts "modest" growth for 2012 at 0.6%:

• Government and Construction sectors will lose 400 and 300 jobs, respectively
• Health Care sector will gain 700 jobs
• Leisure and Hospitality will gain 400 jobs
• Transportation will gain 300 jobs
• Retail Trade and Professional Services will each gain 200 jobs

Health Care is Alaska's Fastest-Growing Industry: Represents 9% of State's Jobs

The August issue of Alaska Economic Trends, released by the State of Alaska Department of Labor, features Alaska's health care industry. The industry added 10,000 jobs between 2001 and 2010, making it Alaska's fastest-growing industry. In 2010, the health care payroll was about $1.5 billion, with nearly 32,000 jobs. The actual job number is higher because it does not include self-employed health care professionals (for example, physicians who own their own practices), health care workers in non-health related government agencies (for example, school nurses), or military health care workers.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that 81% of Alaskans have health insurance, but that does not include about 21,000 Alaska Natives who are covered through the Alaska Tribal Health System. Alaska had the fifth-highest per capita health care costs in the nation in 2004, which is the latest available government data.

For more information about Alaska's health care industry, read the full report.

Alaska's "Top 100" Companies Employ One-Third of Alaska Workers; $4.3 billion in wages

The Alaska Department of Labor reported on the Top 100 Private Employers in the July issue of Alaska Economic Trends.These ten companies employ one-third of Alaska workers and have a combined payroll of $4.3 billion.

The list has changed quite a bit since 1985, when ARCO, BP and Alyeska Pipeline were in the Top 10, along with Alascom, two banks, two grocery chains, and two health care organizations. Providence, which was on the Top 10 list in 1985, has been in the number one spot for the past ten years.  

Alaska is the Most Productive State in 2010

Alaska led the nation in 2010 with the highest per capita real gross domestic product (GDP).  At $63,424 per person in value added economic output Alaska was 49% above the national average.  Mississippi rated the lowest at $29,345 or 31% below the national average.

Though Alaska’s output was impressive on a per capita basis, the size of our total GDP was $49 billion, which accounted for only 0.3% of the entire $14.6 trillion U.S. economy.

The Federal Bureau of Economic Analysis considers this report the most comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity.  It calculates the total of what consumers, businesses and the government spends on final goods and services, plus investment and net foreign trade.  For example, it counts the wages earned by workers, the income generated by businesses and the sales, property and excise taxes paid.

Alaska’s real GDP grew by 1.9% in 2010 following and impressive 8.9% gain in 2009 in the midst of a national recession.  By comparision, the U.S. GDP increased 2.6% in 2010 after declining 2.5% in 2009.  In 2009 Alaska was the third fastest growing state economically and one of only 10 to increase. 

In 2010 the recovery was widespread, with 48 out of the 50 states showing improvement.  North Dakota was the fastest growing with a 7.1% gain due to a very active energy sector.  Second was New York, improving 5.1% mainly from a rebound in finance and insurance, which also helped Connecticut.  Nationally, durable goods manufacturing was the source of the largest overall improvements for the U.S. economy.  Retail trade also was a positve driver in 2010.  However, construction activity declined for the sixth straight year and affected Nevada the most.

In Alaska, the 1.9% growth in GDP was led by government spending, followed closely in improtance by mining (which includes oil & gas).  The third largest positive driver was health care, follwed by real estate.  Unlike the rest of the nation, construction activity was positive in Alaska.  The only significant decline in Alaska was the transportation and warehousing sector.

It is important to note that these national figures do include government spending.  Federal deficit spending has been over a $1 trillion dollars a year, meaning much of this “stimulus” spending is not sustainable over the long run and will need to decrease in future years.  Private sector economic growth will have to make up for this short-term government excess spending if GDP figures are going to continue to rise in the future.

The complete report can be read at: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/2011/pdf/gsp0611.pdf

Alaska's "Continuous Workers" Weather Recession Well

In April's issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor released the 3rd quarter 2010 "continuous employment" figures, the latest available. Continuous employment is defined as workers who have worked for the same employer for the four quarters prior to the reporting period.

Overall, the continuous workforce grew .6%, or 1,300 workers, from the third quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2010.

• The largest number of continuous workers are in local government, with just over 31,000 employees, virtually unchanged from the prior year.
• Health Care and Social Assistance is the second largest group, with 29,000 continuous workers, an increase of 6% over the prior year.
• State government workers are the third largest group, at 21,000 continous workers, growing 1% over the prior year.

Several industries changed by a significant percentage, although the absolute numbers were small:

• Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting increased 13%, to 462 continuous workers
• Management of Companies and Enterprises declined 10%, to 311 workers
• Educational Services declined 8%, to 1,152 workers

Department of Labor economists expect the continuous employment number to grow if the recent increases in new hires stay in their positions.

Ten-Year Forecast for Alaska Health Care Jobs: Up 26.5%

The Alaska Department of Labor forecasts that health care and social assistance jobs will grow by 9,400 by 2018, a 26.5% increase over 2008. Part of the increase is due to the aging of Alaska's population, with the number of Alaskans age 65 and above expected to rise by at least 50 percent by 2018. The 10-year industry forecast was released in the September 2010 issue of Alaska Economic Trends.